Modeling the subcutaneous pharmacokinetics of antibodies co-administered with rHuPH20.

Predicting the subcutaneous (SC) pharmacokinetics (PK) of antibodies in humans is challenging, with clinical data currently being the only reliable data source for modeling SC absorption and bioavailability. Recombinant human hyaluronidase PH20 (rHuPH20) is an enzyme that facilitates SC delivery of high-dose, high-volume therapeutics. Numerous monoclonal antibodies have been co-administered SC with rHuPH20 in a clinical setting, establishing an extensive PK database. The goal of this work is to demonstrate how aggregated clinical data can be leveraged in a universal modeling framework for characterizing SC antibody PK, resulting in parameterization that can be used in predictive simulations of new antibodies. Data for 10 individual antibodies co-administered SC with rHuPH20 were obtained from publicly available sources. PK modeling of each antibody was conducted using the same model structure, but uniquely parameterized. The model structure consisted of a two-compartment model to capture linear kinetics, plus a target-binding mechanism to accommodate nonlinear kinetics driven by antibody-target complex formation and elimination. The clinical PK profiles for all antibodies were accurately described using the universal modeling framework. The SC PK parameters of absorption and bioavailability were consistent across the range of antibody and target properties evaluated. SC administration with rHuPH20 yielded a 30% increase in absorption rate on average and similar or better bioavailability. These parameter values can serve as initial conditions for model-based PK predictions for new antibodies co-administered SC with rHuPH20 to enable evaluation of optimal SC dose and schedule regimens prior to and during clinical development.

Heterogeneity in Vaccinal Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 Can Be Addressed by a Personalized Booster Strategy.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations were initially shown to substantially reduce risk of severe disease and death. However, pharmacokinetic (PK) waning and rapid viral evolution degrade neutralizing antibody (nAb) binding titers, causing loss of vaccinal protection. Additionally, there is inter-individual heterogeneity in the strength and durability of the vaccinal nAb response. Here, we propose a personalized booster strategy as a potential solution to this problem. Our model-based approach incorporates inter-individual heterogeneity in nAb response to primary SARS-CoV-2 vaccination into a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model to project population-level heterogeneity in vaccinal protection. We further examine the impact of evolutionary immune evasion on vaccinal protection over time based on variant fold reduction in nAb potency. Our findings suggest viral evolution will decrease the effectiveness of vaccinal protection against severe disease, especially for individuals with a less durable immune response. More frequent boosting may restore vaccinal protection for individuals with a weaker immune response. Our analysis shows that the ECLIA RBD binding assay strongly predicts neutralization of sequence-matched pseudoviruses. This may be a useful tool for rapidly assessing individual immune protection. Our work suggests vaccinal protection against severe disease is not assured and identifies a potential path forward for reducing risk to immunologically vulnerable individuals.

No magic bullet: Limiting in-school transmission in the face of variable SARS-CoV-2 viral loads.

In the face of a long-running pandemic, understanding the drivers of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission is crucial for the rational management of COVID-19 disease burden. Keeping schools open has emerged as a vital societal imperative during the pandemic, but in-school transmission of SARS-CoV-2 can contribute to further prolonging the pandemic. In this context, the role of schools in driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission acquires critical importance. Here we model in-school transmission from first principles to investigate the effectiveness of layered mitigation strategies on limiting in-school spread. We examined the effect of masks and air quality (ventilation, filtration and ionizers) on steady-state viral load in classrooms, as well as on the number of particles inhaled by an uninfected person. The effectiveness of these measures in limiting viral transmission was assessed for variants with different levels of mean viral load (ancestral, Delta, Omicron). Our results suggest that a layered mitigation strategy can be used effectively to limit in-school transmission, with certain limitations. First, poorly designed strategies (insufficient ventilation, no masks, staying open under high levels of community transmission) will permit in-school spread even if some level of mitigation is present. Second, for viral variants that are sufficiently contagious, it may be difficult to construct any set of interventions capable of blocking transmission once an infected individual is present, underscoring the importance of other measures. Our findings provide practical recommendations; in particular, the use of a layered mitigation strategy that is designed to limit transmission, with other measures such as frequent surveillance testing and smaller class sizes (such as by offering remote schooling options to those who prefer it) as needed.

Beyond the new normal: Assessing the feasibility of vaccine-based suppression of SARS-CoV-2.

As the COVID-19 pandemic drags into its second year, there is hope on the horizon, in the form of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines which promise disease suppression and a return to pre-pandemic normalcy. In this study we critically examine the basis for that hope, using an epidemiological modeling framework to establish the link between vaccine characteristics and effectiveness in bringing an end to this unprecedented public health crisis. Our findings suggest that a return to pre-pandemic social and economic conditions without fully suppressing SARS-CoV-2 will lead to extensive viral spread, resulting in a high disease burden even in the presence of vaccines that reduce risk of infection and mortality. Our modeling points to the feasibility of complete SARS-CoV-2 suppression with high population-level compliance and vaccines that are highly effective at reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection. Notably, vaccine-mediated reduction of transmission is critical for viral suppression, and in order for partially-effective vaccines to play a positive role in SARS-CoV-2 suppression, complementary biomedical interventions and public health measures must be deployed simultaneously.

Individually optimal choices can be collectively disastrous in COVID-19 disease control.

BACKGROUND: The word 'pandemic' conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2-its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread-exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with measures aimed at limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. RESULTS: Our modeling demonstrates that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. CONCLUSIONS: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering suppression of SARS-CoV-2 spread ineffective. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

In the long shadow of our best intentions: Model-based assessment of the consequences of school reopening during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As the world grapples with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, a particularly thorny set of questions surrounds the reopening of primary and secondary (K-12) schools. The benefits of in-person learning are numerous, in terms of education quality, mental health, emotional well-being, equity and access to food and shelter. Early reports suggested that children might have reduced susceptibility to COVID-19, and children have been shown to experience fewer complications than older adults. Over the past few months, our understanding of COVID-19 has been further shaped by emerging data, and it is now understood that children are as susceptible to infection as adults and have a similar viral load during infection, even if asymptomatic. Based on this updated understanding of the disease, we have used epidemiological modeling to explore the feasibility and consequences of school reopening in the face of differing rates of COVID-19 prevalence and transmission. We focused our analysis on the United States, but the results are applicable to other countries as well. We demonstrate the potential for a large discrepancy between detected cases and true infections in schools due to the combination of high asymptomatic rates in children coupled with delays in seeking testing and receiving results from diagnostic tests. Our findings indicate that, regardless of the initial prevalence of the disease, and in the absence of robust surveillance testing and contact-tracing, most schools in the United States can expect to remain open for 20-60 days without the emergence of sizeable disease clusters. At this point, even if schools choose to close after outbreaks occur, COVID-19 cases will be seeded from these school clusters and amplified into the community. Thus, our findings suggest that the debate between the risks to student safety and benefits of in-person learning frames a false dual choice. Reopening schools without surveillance testing and contact tracing measures in place will lead to spread within the schools and within the communities that eventually forces a return to remote learning and leaves a trail of infection in its wake.

Widefield Fluorescein Angiography in the Fellow Eyes of Patients with Presumed Unilateral Persistent Fetal Vasculature.

PURPOSE: To examine the retinal vascular findings on widefield fluorescein angiography (FA) in the fellow eyes of patients with unilateral persistent fetal vasculature (PFV). DESIGN: Retrospective case series. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive patients with unilateral PFV evaluated by a single physician at an academic medical center from February 1, 2011, to November 30, 2018. METHODS: Clinical and demographic information, including age, gender, race, ethnicity, affected eye, subtype, stalk origin, complications on presentation, length of follow-up, and examination findings, was reviewed using the electronic medical record. Fluorescein angiograms of the affected and fellow eyes were reviewed by 2 authors for characteristic retinal vascular abnormalities. Agreement between the authors' scores was analyzed using Cohen's Kappa. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Fluorescein angiography abnormalities, including peripheral vessel avascularity, aberrant circumferential vessels, terminal supernumerary branching, regional capillary dropout, terminal bulbing, abnormal choroidal flush, abnormal vessel straightening, and peripheral vessel leakage or dilation. RESULTS: Inclusion criteria were met by 41 patients. The average age at initial visit was 10.0 months. The average length of follow-up was 36.4 months. Abnormalities on FA were seen in 31 (75.6%) fellow eyes: peripheral vessel avascularity in 27.5 (67.1%), aberrant circumferential vessels in 20 (48.8%), terminal supernumerary branching in 17 (41.5%), regional capillary dropout in 9 (22.0%), terminal bulbing in 6 (14.6%), abnormal choroidal flush in 3.5 (8.5%), and abnormal vessel straightening and peripheral vessel leakage in 2.5 (6.1%). Statistical analysis disclosed an overall observed agreement of 93.4% among the raters (κ = 0.84, P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Retinal vascular abnormalities seen in patients with unilateral PFV were present in the majority of fellow eyes. This suggests that unilateral PFV may in fact be a bilateral, asymmetric process, but the clinical significance of these subtle findings is not known.

Low-cost, smartphone-based frequency doubling technology visual field testing using a head-mounted display.

BACKGROUND: Current visual field screening machines are bulky and expensive, limiting their accessibility, affordability and use. We report the design and evaluation of a novel, portable, cost-effective system for glaucoma screening using smartphone-based visual field screening using frequency doubling technology (FDT) and a head-mounted display. METHODS: Nineteen eyes of 10 subjects with new-onset or chronic primary open angle glaucoma were tested and compared with the Humphrey Zeiss FDT and the newly developed Mobile Virtual Perimetry (MVP) FDT with the C-20 testing pattern. Mann-Whitney, Bland-Altman and linear regression analyses were performed to assess statistical difference, agreement and correlation, respectively, between the two devices. RESULTS: The average age of the participants was 58±15 years. No statistically significant difference was found between the MVP FDT and the Humphrey Zeiss FDT (p>0.05). Bland-Altman and linear regression analyses demonstrated good agreement and correlation between the two devices. CONCLUSION: The MVP FDT is a low-cost, portable visual field screening device that produces comparable results to the Humphrey Zeiss FDT and may be used as an easily accessible screening tool for glaucoma.

Clinical Diagnosis and Histopathologic Features of a Synthetic Fiber Granuloma.

The authors report a case of a synthetic fiber granuloma to demonstrate the challenges in diagnosing these lesions and to highlight their histopathologic features. This is the first report in the literature to use histopatho-logic and immunofluorescence studies to characterize the subtype and distribution of macrophages in synthetic fiber granuloma. [J Pediatr Ophthalmol Strabismus. 2020;57:e92-e95.].

A mechanistic pharmacodynamic model of IRAK-4 drug inhibition in the Toll-like receptor pathway.

The TLR pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of numerous diseases. IRAK-4 is integral to this pathway, making it a viable target for therapeutic intervention. This paper describes the application of a mechanistic pharmacodynamic model to assess the impact of IRAK-4 inhibition on the TLR-4 pathway. The model uses a minimal number of rate equations, molecular species, and parameters to characterize TLR signal transduction biology, including ligand-receptor interaction, protein complex formation, protein phosphorylation, negative regulation, and cytokine production. The model successfully reproduces the dynamic responses of TNFα to LPS stimulation, the tolerance to sequential LPS bolus dosing, the burst following a LPS bolus or infusion, and the modulation of pathway biomarkers following administration of an IRAK-4 inhibitor. Drug dosing schemes are evaluated for simulated disease states. The results emphasize the significance of LPS kinetics on response dynamics and the utility of a mechanistic model to help translate drug efficacy.

Dynamic model for CHO cell engineering.

Industrial CHO cell fed-batch processes have progressed significantly over the past decade, with recombinant protein titer consistently reaching the gram per liter level. Such improvements have largely resulted from separate advances in process and cell line development. Model-based selection of targets for metabolic engineering in CHO cells is confounded by the dynamic nature of the fed-batch process. In this work, we use a dynamic model of CHO cell metabolism to simultaneously identify both process and cell modifications that improve antibody production. Model simulations explored ca. 9200 combinations of process variables (shift temperature, shift day, seed density, and harvest day) and knockdowns (8 metabolic enzymes). A comprehensive examination of a simulated solution space showed that optimal gene knockdown clearly depends on the process parameters such as temperature shift day, shift temperature, and seed density. Knockdown of enzymes related to lactate production were the most beneficial; however, depending on the process conditions, modulating such enzymes yielded varying productivities, ranging from a reduction in final titer to greater than 2-fold improvement.

Dynamic model of CHO cell metabolism.

Fed-batch cultures are extensively used for the production of therapeutic proteins. However, process optimization is hampered by lack of quantitative models of mammalian cellular metabolism in these cultures. This paper presents a new kinetic model of CHO cell metabolism and a novel framework for simulating the dynamics of metabolic and biosynthetic pathways of these cells grown in fed-batch culture. The model defines a subset of the intracellular reactions with kinetic rate expressions based on extracellular metabolite concentrations and temperature- and redox-dependent regulatory variables. The simulation uses the rate expressions to calculate pseudo-steady state flux distributions and extracellular metabolite concentrations at discrete time points. Experimental data collected in this study for several different CHO cell fed-batch cultures are used to derive the rate expressions, fit the parameters, and validate the model. The simulations accurately predicted the effects of process variables, including temperature shift, seed density, specific productivity, and nutrient concentrations.

Identification of distributed metabolic objectives in the hypermetabolic liver by flux and energy balance analysis.

A methodology for inferring distributed metabolic objectives from time series flux data is developed by combining metabolic flux analysis, pathway identification, free energy balances, and nested optimization. This methodology is used to investigate the metabolic response of the rat liver to burn injury-induced whole body inflammation. Gibbs free energy changes were computed for stoichiometrically balanced sequences of reactions, or pathways, rather than individual reactions, to account for energetic coupling between reactions. Systematic enumeration of pathways proceeded by elementary flux mode (EFM) analysis. Together with stoichiometric balances and external metabolite flux measurements, the DeltaG(PATH)(o) criterion provided sufficient constraints to solve a series of nested optimization problems on the metabolic goal functions and associated flux distributions of fasted livers during the first-week time course of burn injury. The optimization results suggest that there is a consistent metabolic goal function for the liver that is insensitive to the changing metabolic burdens experienced by the liver during the first-week time course. As defined by the goal function coefficients, the global metabolic objective was to distribute the metabolic resources between amino acid metabolism and ketone body synthesis. These findings point to a role for the time-invariant structure of the metabolic reaction network, expressed as stoichiometric and thermodynamic constraints, in shaping the cellular metabolic objective.